ThinkingShift

I want you to read this news item that appeared in the Sydney Morning Herald last week. I simply can’t bring myself to describe what happened, so I’m going to ask you to read the article instead. Once you have, I’m sure you’ll be staggered by this senseless and cruel act. There is no reason to believe the woman was lying or exaggerating. Okay, perhaps it wasn’t the smartest thing to do: walking late at night, a woman alone, in an isolated industrial estate. I’ll be very interested to see if the area was monitored by CCTV: here’s where I would agree with CCTV if it can identify the “hoons” and send them off for punishment.

I’m sure that people think of Sydney as a safe place, with a glittering harbour, good food, plenty of sunshine and so on. On the whole, it’s a great place to live but I’ve been noting subtle (and not so subtle) changes of late. I’m noticing a lot more homeless people or people sitting on the sidewalks near Martin Place asking for spare change. Over the last month, about five people have come up to me asking for money. Every city has its underbelly of homeless or struggling people, but as I was growing up, it was a rare sight indeed to see people asking for money. What really gets me is whilst I give them whatever spare change I have, besuited people rush on by, almost as though to look at a person who is struggling or dirty is abhorrent.

And we seem to be witnessing a rise in unbelievable acts of violence. Melbourne has also been suffering of late with its fair share of crazed people. A young man in his late 20s was quietly reading his book on a train when a “speed-using schizophrenic” fatally stabbed the man with a serrated knife without provocation or warning. Apparently, the man who did the stabbing said his victim was “looking at me the wrong way”.

Of course, we live in a selfish society: it’s all about ME. So we indulge ourselves with drugs that mess with the mind; we want our 15 minutes of fame because we believe we have stuff to say (and that people actually want to hear it). But I think these two acts in Sydney and Melbourne point to the fact that our society is starting to cross the line. We could say the hoons in the car were (a) simply evil or (b) on some sort of drug trip and that the Melbourne incident occurred because our society prefers to ignore the plight of the mentally ill and so they are often not appropriately medicated or integrated into mainstream society.

Or we could say that there is something deep-rooted in contemporary society, something disturbing and unsettling. Whilst we are busy worrying about ME and whether ME is known and worshipped by OTHERS; and whilst we’re worrying about whether ME is paid well enough or has a big enough house - what we don’t fully appreciate is that we are isolating ourselves, drawing a tight boundary around ourselves. And this is leading IMHO to looking at others with suspicion. Trust is dead, kaput in our society. So we have CCTV cams because WE can’t be trusted by the State and private corporations; we protect ourselves from increasing abnormal behaviour by installing security alarms. We are not friendly and welcoming or helpful and caring. We are aggressive, self-centred and prone to poking fun at anything “different”.

We’re a narcissistic society - the result of post-WWII innovation and increasing prosperity, good employment opportunities and unlimitless BRANDS to choose from. We’ve grown fat and lazy like the contented domestic cat wallowing away the hours on comfy cushions. We have road-rage, steroid-rage, obviously now “pet-rage”. We’re angry and feeling vulnerable. I think that modern capitalism has led to this - it has weakened unique cultures, traditions and values and left people confused about who they are and what they stand for. We (the West) are now culturally weak. The irony is that we are told to be “multi-cultural” and respect other cultures. Fine, but we fail to really understand those cultures or find out anything about their traditions - we simply pay lip-service. And this leads to kindergarten battles over whether Santa Claus and his “ho ho ho” is offensive to other cultures. It’s descended into a struggle for the soul of Christmas.

I suspect that Samuel Huntington was indeed right: the clash of civilisations is the pattern of conflict replacing the Cold War. Huntington said: It is my hypothesis that the fundamental source of conflict in this new world will not be primarily ideological or primarily economic. The great divisions among humankind and the dominating source of conflict will be cultural. Nation states will remain the most powerful actors in world affairs, but the principal conflicts of global politics will occur between nations and groups of different civilizations. The clash of civilizations will be the battle lines of the future.

And so in a world that is facing the War on Terror, war on drugs, rage, aggression and anger - how can we not as individuals feel that our culture and self is being threatened. So we lash out or we take back control (for example controlling our bodies, hence eating disorders and diet obsessions). In no way do I think this excuses what happened to the pet dog or the train victim - these sorry and frightening incidents are symptoms of what’s coursing through the veins of Western society.

I remember that this essay by Mark Steyn had a profound impact on me when it was published in the WSJ in 2006. His bold statement is: Much of what we loosely call the Western world will not survive this century, and much of it will effectively disappear within our lifetimes, including many if not most Western European countries.

And if Huntington is right about the clash of civilisations, then Steyn’s essay I think shows us that perhaps we don’t need to worry about whether the planet is heating up - because humans won’t be around at the rate we’re going.

I have SO had to control myself over the last couple of weeks while I take a pre-Xmas break. So much stuff to blog about! I’ll start off this post by saying I am very pleased that the Australian people had the good sense to kick out Howard and usher in the Rudd Government. Funny thing is that growing up, my family were die-hard Liberal voters. And I voted Liberal for many years. But a few things convinced me to give Rudd a chance - Howard wasn’t taking climate change seriously (until he caught on too late that it was a voting issue); he was a fear mongerer; and I couldn’t see what vision he had for Australia moving forward.

But what really convinced me was the debate between Rudd and Howard. Rudd is the first Labor leader who could hold his own against Howard, but what incensed me was the two naughty schoolchildren - Costello and Downer - in the audience, sniggering away whilst the debate was going on. And Costello as PM? NO thanks.

So we have a new Australian Government and probably Howard will go down in history as being leader of the first Western government to be brought down by the climate change issue. What is in store for Australia? Well, we know now that one of Rudd’s first actions was to ratify the Kyoto Protocol - good to see a core election promise already fulfilled and I can feel a little less embarrassed about living in a country that is a major carbon emitter. But ratifying Kyoto is a first and an easy step. But it is a step that hopefully will see Australia getting back to being a nation in its own right and not tied to the apron strings of the US. And by sending Senator Penny Wong, Australia’s first climate change Minister, to the Bali Climate Change conference, Rudd is signalling to the world that Australia is prepared to take a strong lead in global discussions - can you imagine one year ago ever believing that Australia would be sending an openly gay woman of Chinese descent to a global climate change conference!

But I’ll be watching to see if this is backed up with action. Australia is now legally bound to restrict greenhouse gas emissions to 108% of 1990 levels during the 2008-12 commitment period and penalties will be set out under the post-Kyoto deal that kicks in after 2012. Plus setting a target to reduce emissions by 60% on 2000 levels by 2050. So the heat is on so to speak - we are not on track to meet our 2012 target despite Howard having said yeah, we are. Labor is going to have to switch pronto from coal-fired power so emissions can start to drop. And what is really important is to clarify the 2020 target for emissions but I don’t think this will be done until the Rudd Government gets hold of the report by economist Ross Garnaut in 2008, which will outline the impact of interim emissions targets (Garnaut Review of Climate Change and its Economic Impact). Garnaut gave a lecture on November 29 and reading his notes gives me hope. Instead of focusing on the risk Australia may face because of the importance of our trade that derives from emission-intensive industries (ie the nasty fear mongering bit that Howard always yapped about), he talks about how Australia can take a lead internationally on climate change. Australia is well-positioned to:

• use our rich resources for solar, geothermal and wind energy
• we have large deposits of natural gas, the exports of which can be increased in a world focused on effective mitigation
• we have favourable sites for effective carbon capture and storage

Garnaut argues that Australia has many strengths that will facilitate and render less costly domestic mitigation. Garnaut states: “Australia can ensure that its own mitigation regime fits productively into the international regime which we judge to be feasible for the future. Our own announced emissions targets should relate approximately to the emissions budget that we judge to be likely to emerge from a global discussion of principles for allocating rights among countries. A complementary step would be to work with others, including developing countries in our region, to encourage their
own development of internationally compatible mitigation policies, encouraged by opportunities for trade in permits and technological exchange….We are too late to be one of the first to move amongst developed countries, but we can cease to be a laggard. Australia’s own adoption of an efficient mitigation approach, carefully designed to encourage others to move towards effective contributions to global mitigation, can play an important international role. Our action would be a step towards resolution of the repeated prisoners’ dilemma” (ie if there was a single international negotiation on climate change where each country took its own policy position, developed within the framework of its national interests and without communication with other countries, no country would choose to do anything). You can read Garnaut’s lecture and gain a sense of his thinking here.

I have to admit to a liking for possums. Yes, I’m a New Zealander and over in kiwi land we don’t like these furry marsupials. They’re a pesky critter and last time I heard there were around 70 million possums in New Zealand. With 4 million or so people, that’s about 20 possums per New Zealander. In NZ, you can buy possum products, heck you can buy them online if you’re worried about possums wreaking havoc on native bush and birds (yep, they do).

But in Australia, possums are almost a national treasure. They are protected under the provisions of various State laws because they are a native species and it’s quite common to have a possum or two hanging out in your backyard. Because I live in the bush, whenever I turn on the floodlights to illuminate the gum trees at night, dozens of eyes blink back at me (possums, not aliens!). I have a family of possums that live in a large, very beautiful gum tree, adjacent to our top storey balcony.

So I’m rather proud of a particular Australian possum. New Scientist (no 2625, p20) has a report of an eastern pygmy possum (Cercartetus nanus) who stuffed itself full of food in a laboratory at the University of New England, Armidale, then curled up and promptly went to sleep for 367 days. A few mammals, such as squirrels, hibernate for up to six months and a western jumping mouse once konked out for 320 days.

But a little pygmy possum outdid the lot of them. And the little critter could also be considered the world’s first “green possum” because during its 367 day snooze, the possum used just one-fortieth of the energy it does when its awake and active. Clearly, the possum fraternity will do well when Australia is further in the grip of drought and food is less available. They’ll just curl up and wait it out.

A new report, Climate Change in Australia, has just been released. Developed by CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology it provides the most comprehensive (and pretty scary) assessment to date of Australia’s future climate. Basically, Australians are going to be increasingly saying “it’s getting hot in here”. The report looks at the years 2030, 2050 and 2070 through the lens of a number of different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Here’s the bad news:

• by 2030 temperatures will rise by about 1 ºC throughout Australia
• then it depends on the level of greenhouse gases as to what happens next, but….
• if emissions are LOW, warming of between 1 ºC and 2.5 ºC is likely by around 2070, with a best estimate of 1.8 ºC.
• but…if emissions are HIGH, then we’re stuffed - under a high emission scenario, the best estimate warming is 3.4 ºC, with a range of 2.2 ºC to 5 ºC.
• the number of days hitting 35ºC may triple
• the likelihood of seeing rain is pretty slim - under a low emission scenario in 2070, the best estimate of rainfall decrease is 7.5%. Under a high emission scenario the best estimate is a decrease of 10%.

And as a result of all this? well…..a long list of potential catastrophic scenarios:

• more frequent droughts particularly in south-west Australia (well, let’s just extend our current long drought straight through to 2070!)
• high-fire danger and more frequent bushfires
• more intense tropical cyclones
• rising sea levels.

You can freak yourself out with a climate change map of Australia here on the CSIRO site. The technical report is here if you want to wade your way through it. And if you live in Sydney, here’s the really bad, worst case scenario news - an annual temperature rise of up to 4.3 degrees by 2070. And we can’t panic now because it’s already too late to avoid a warming of about 1 degree by 2030.

The report highlights a warming of 0.9 degrees since 1950 and an increase in hot nights have been mostly due to greenhouse gas emissions. There’s been a 40% reduction in snow depth in Spring in the Snowy Mountains in the past 45 years.

And obvious signs of climate change are already happening at the top end of the world. In Greenland, in the year 985, Erik the Red, who was leader of a medieval Norse colony, built his farm and raised sheep, cattle, and barley. Erik and his cohorts could do this because the climate was warmer, but then the Little Ice Age arrived and the colony was doomed. Now, it’s come full circle - in Qassiarsuk, Greenland, young potatoes and radishes are sprouting up. Scientists say that nowhere else in the world are the effects of climate change so obvious as in Greenland. Winter sea ice is rapidly disappearing, which means the Inuit might be in for a rough ride - ice-hole fishing, sled dog mushing and other traditional means of living and surviving will disappear along with the ice. Farming, which is an occupation not heard of 100 years ago in this area, will stage a comeback due to warmer temperatures.

Source: CS Monitor. Photo credit: SMH

It’s taken me a couple of days to get over the staggering news that quite possibly Australia is facing a future of internet censorship at the hands of the Federal Police. I wanted to wait and see if the news wasn’t as bad as it first seemed.

Of course, I’m referring to the news in The Australian that a Bill was (it seems) hurriedly and quietly ushered into Parliament at 9.58am September 22. The proposed legislation would give the Australian Federal Police (AFP) the power to block, ban or filter websites believed to be crime or terrorism related. The Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) already maintains a “blacklist” of websites containing pornographic or offensive content and they have the power to act against these websites. The web ban bill will extend this blacklist by allowing the AFP to inform the ACMA of websites to be blocked. The ACMA must then notify ISPs who will be required to take reasonable steps to prevent users accessing the websites.

I find this staggering for a few reasons:

• a democratic country (well, last time I looked anyway) like Australia is censoring the internet? China dabbles in internet censorship and has erected the Great Firewall of China - is Australia erecting its own wall now?
• is the Government delegating censorship and regulation to the communications industry? The burden of policing and regulating would no doubt be passed onto the consumer.

Greens Senator Kerry Nettle said the Bill would give the Police Commissioner “enormous power over what political content Australians can look at” on the web and points out that environmental organisations like Greenpeace, who have been accused of terror-related actions in the past, could potentially have their website blocked or shut down.

It seems the Bill was hussled through Senate without warning on the eve of a Federal Election - which for me raises the question of just how far the Government will go in their attempts to control internet content.

Perhaps next up, we’ll follow the Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) efforts in recording what people read on a plane. Wired carried an article on the airport screening programme of the DHS. Their Airport Targetting System scrutinises every airline passenger entering or leaving the US and records information such as ethnic background and the answers given to US border officials regarding the reason for travel. Because the ATS is also linked up to airlines’ Passenger Name Records (which are required to be submitted to the US Government), a vast array of information is stored - destinations, phone and email details, meal requests, special health requests, payment details, frequent-flier numbers, contact numbers for overseas family members. The system also records previous customs inspection notes. So this caught John Gilmore, Electronic Frontier Foundation co-founder, who took onto a plane a book entitled Drugs and Your Rights. Inspection notes on Gilmore said:
“PAX (passenger) has many small flashlights with pot leaves on them. He had a book entitled ‘Drugs and Your Rights.‘” Gilmore is apparently an advocate for marijuana legalisation.

And another inspection note said: “attended computer conference in Berlin and then traveled around Europe and Asia to visit friends. 100% baggage exam negative…. PAX is self employed ‘Entrepreneur’ in computer software business.”

DHS has now released a denial saying they are not interested in what we’re reading.

A privacy advocate said: “There is so much sensitive information in the documents that it is clear that Homeland Security is not playing straight with the American people“. No kidding! I don’t think the Australian Government is playing straight with Australians either when it hussles a Bill through Senate that is basically internet censorship.

Just to make me even more perturbed, Patrick Lambe over at Green Chameleon, alerted me to an essay written by Cory Doctorow in Radar Online called Scroogled. It’s a fictitious piece asking the question: what if Google controlled your life?

I’m not going to summarise it because I really want you to read it - scary as hell. And should such a future materialise (and I think it will) then I’ll be getting a knock on the door at 2.00am no doubt given the stuff I’ve written about Google on this blog and elsewhere. Thank goodness I recently read The File by Timothy Garton Ash. Ash’s experience with the Stasi might give me some clues on how to handle a world controlled by Google!

I have shamelessly ganked the photos below from the article - powerful and scary if you ask me.

Look closely at this last image - Border Crossing Immigration - brought to you by Google. In light of the airport security screening programme I mentioned above, perhaps not such a far fetched scenario. Well, actually that future is here already. You might remember that Canadian psychotherapist, Andrew Feldmar, was denied entry into the US recently because? A Google-happy border security officer Googled Feldmar’s name and found an article he’d written that described his experiences with hallucinogenic drugs during the 1960s. Hello? the 60s were 40 years ago - doesn’t mean the dude is smuggling magic mushrooms into the US now just because he dabbled in them when he was tripping out with the hippies.

I think that when I’m old and crusty (pretty soon really) I’ll be sitting down with Gen Whatever Letter and reminiscing about the good old days of privacy and no Google. They’ll look at me and wonder if I’m on magic mushrooms - because they will have been brought up in a world controlled by surveillance technologies which get you hauled over at some airport or woken up at 2.00am to answer questions about what you searched on Google last night. It will all seem very natural to them because they won’t have experienced anything different.

UPDATE: Internet industry experts warn that the proposed legislation mentioned in this post could inadvertently block access to popular sites like Facebook and slow internet speed to a snail’s pace. Read the article in The Australian.

Well, here’s a surprise (not!) - apparently Australians are overweight, over-indulged and over-looked (by whom I’m not sure). The Australian Bureau of Statistics has just released a report entitled “Australian Social Trends 2007” and I think there are some concerns.

According to the ABS Media Release, the snapshot into the national Australian lifestyle reveals:

• Australia’s total fertility rate has increased, reaching 1.81 babies per woman in 2005 – the highest level recorded since 1995. (Australia’s fertility rate fell to a historic low in 2001 - 1.73 babies per woman).
• the probability of marrying has declined. This is probably due to Gen Y’s focus on career and delaying have a family until they’re in their 30s. If current rates were to continue, 31% of men and 26% of women would never marry.
• 20% of children live in one-parent families, which places them at a potential disadvantage since in 2003–2004 almost half (49%) of one-parent families with children under 15 had both low income and low wealth, compared with 11% of couple families with children of the same age.
• In Australia’s labour force, more women are working, up from 74% in 1990 to 76% in 2005 for people aged 15-64 years (mmmm….what happens when you’re over 64 years?).
• 7.4 million Australian adults (54%) are overweight or obese - this is an increase of 2 million adults since 1995.
• we’re buying more “stuff” because many goods and services have become more affordable – including motor vehicles, clothing and footwear and household appliances – others, such as education and hospital and medical services, have become less affordable because price rises for these services have outpaced increases in income and wealth.
• there’s been an increase in household disposable income, increasing from 5.1 per cent per year between 1985/86 and 2005/06.
• but…..bankruptcy rates are near their highest point in 20 years. And so we’re sinking further into debt despite an increased disposable income (are you listening John Howard?)
• we’re better educated.

So we’re getting smarter but fatter - great.

Australia’s Prime Minister is yet to put his autograph on the Kyoto Protocol but at least the Federal Government is smart enough to figure out that wildlife on the world’s driest continent is going to have a pretty rough time as the planet heats up. Australian State and Federal Governments have agreed (a shock in itself really) to create a 2,800 kilometre wildlife corridor according to a piece in Reuters.

The entire East Coast of Australia - from the Australian Alps (south-eastern Australia) to the tropical north - will link national parks, state forests and Government land. Clearly, there’s going to have to be some snappy negotiation with private landowners who might be in the path of the proposed corridor. Not sure either how the animals and plants will find this magical corridor, but presumably as the Land Down Under sizzles under temperatures rising by up to 6.7 degrees Celsius (12 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2080, the preserved areas will function as protective ecosystems.

As one of the scientists involved in the proposal said: “The effects of climate change will likely to be less severe in systems that have some resilience and that we haven’t gone in and buggered-up”.

A thumbs up to the Australian Government for this initiative!

And in related news from National Geographic: the heat is off the sun. A favourite argument of those denying climate change has been that cyclical changes in solar activity have periodically resulted in warmer periods throughout history. The beginning of the 20th Century, particularly the 1930s, experienced warmer temperatures. But that trend reversed after 1985 and cannot explain the rapidly increasing temperatures the world is facing. As one climate scientist quipped:

“Think of the sun as a criminal suspect who has a long record, but a cast iron alibi for the latest crime…..And meanwhile, the fingerprints of CO2 are all over the murder weapon”.

How cute is this? to kick-start our week, here’s a photo of Indah, a jet black eight-week old baby binturong, a species of civet usually found in the forests of South East Asia. Indah is the first binturong bred in captivity at Taronga Park Zoo (Sydney, Australia) since the species went on display there in the 1950s.

Binturongs are tree-dwelling nocturnal animals and often called bearcats due to their bear-like faces. Indah looks like a cross between a kitten, a cute cuddly toy and a bear cub to me. She’s just been introduced to her enclosure and is exploring it like any wide-eyed baby animal. Indah love grapes apparently and she should grow to the size of a large house cat (mmm…wonder whether I could have one as a pet!).

Binturongs are becoming increasingly rare as their forest habitat is cleared for timber and cropland.Indah means “beautiful” in the Malay language - a very fitting name for such a cutie.

In an earlier post this week, there were some fabulous photos from 100 years ago and some superb nature photos - go check them out if you missed them.

Being Australian, it’s great to report on a couple of stories about my country :)- if you’ve been to Australia, you’ll know what an exotic land of contrasts it is - harsh, burnt-orange tinged deserts; snowcapped mountains; Uluru; hopping marsupials generally given the moniker Skippy; unusual flora and fauna; and the world’s only egg laying, duck-billed mammal (the platypus). Australia’s outback (or Never-Never in the Aboriginal language; or Back of Beyond or Back O’Bourke in colloquial language), is an ecosystem that has evolved in isolation over millennia.

Professor Ron Quinn of Eskitis Institute for Cell and Molecular Therapies at Australia’s Griffith University is investigating whether the unique properties of Australian plants and marine animals can deliver a cure for cancer and other diseases. In the course of his work, the good professor has discovered 40 plants and 1500 marine animals previously unknown to science, which he hopes may be the key to developing medicines from natural products, which will be able to win the war against the horror diseases of cancer; cardiovascular disease; respiratory disease; and illnesses of the central nervous system.

Seems hard to believe when we think about our Chemical Age, but there are a number of pharmaceutical drugs derived from natural products - the breast cancer drug paclitaxel (TaxolTM), is derived from the stripped bark of the Pacific Yew tree and the cholesterol-lowering drug Lovastatin (AltocorTM) is derived from a fungus. And of course, folk medicine and alternative therapies take advantage of plants and herbs, so it’s good to see that scientists are investigating whether Australia’s exotic flora and fauna might just contain untapped natural sources for future medicines.

And you probably know that Australia is in the grip of a long-standing drought. And you probably also know that Western culture has largely ignored or ridiculed indigenous folk wisdom - and Australia is no exception. Australia’s indigenous people watch the red-tailed black cockatoo and the yellow wattle bush very closely - if the cockies are squawking away and wattle is blossoming, this equals rain. All things are naturally connected and generations of indigenous Australians have monitored the behaviour of animals and plants to inform their meteorological observations. The Indigenous Weather Knowledge Project hopes to harness indigenous peoples’ ancient understanding of weather patterns.

Similar to previous posts where I’ve talked about community mapping projects, Australia’s weather and seasons will be mapped according to indigenous knowledge. By studying clues in the landscape and from flora and fauna, the Indigenous Weather Knowledge Project will closely observe changing weather patterns in the face of climate change. In the Northern Territory, for example, the appearance of the elegant brolga crane signals the start of the monsoon season; when white breasted wood swallows are found together with mudlarks, this signals the beginnings of the wet and dry seasons in the Northeast Arnhem Land area.

Australia has four British-imported seasons: autumn (or Fall); winter; spring; and summer. Indigenous Australians, however, recognise up to seven distinct seasons - you can see the Aboriginal seasons here. This project will be a great way for indigenous knowledge to be showcased and complement scientific approaches.