Not so lucky

March 23, 2010 at 2:00 am 6 comments

I always call Australia the canary in the coalmine when it comes to climate change. We are already the driest inhabited continent on earth and areas of Australia have been experiencing prolonged severe drought since around 2003. We’re the so-called Lucky Country but maybe our number is up. It’s going to be a real party for Australia when global warming hits us. I heard the other day on the news that mosquito-borne illnesses such as Dengue Fever will be increasingly common as we heat up.

I know that some of you will be shaking your heads saying noooooooo climate change isn’t real. Especially because some scientists seem to have been naughty boys and girls. But climate change scientists and academics are fighting back and here’s the really chilling part of what they have to say:

None of the handful of mis-statements (out of hundreds and hundreds of unchallenged statements) remotely undermines the conclusion that “warming of the climate system is unequivocal” and that most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is very likely due to observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations“.

Some 250 climate change scientists and academics have signed the open letter in an attempt to bring back some credibility to the climate change debate. They also state:

“…measurements of global average temperatures show an increase of about 0.6 degrees C over the twentieth century and about 0.8 degrees C warming since mid-19th century.  The pattern of increase has not been smooth or monotonic.  There have been several 10- to 15-year periods of stable or declining temperatures over the past 150 years, but 14 of the warmest 15 years on record have been experienced between 1995 and 2009.  Since 1970, observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are already being affected by these temperature increases“.

Globally, the winter of 2009-2010 was the second warmest on record despite the snowstorms and cold temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere.

Whether it’s anthropogenic global warming or just plain old global warming – the scientific stuff is pointing to rising temperatures. Americans: if you want to know what your country might look like in say 20 years, read this. Australia is already there.

And the CSIRO (serious pointy-headed dudes) has just released their State of the Climate report. You can download it here. There are no “is climate change really happening” type questions in this report. It is full of grim statistics like:

  • rapidly rising sea levels from 1993 to 2009, with levels around Australia rising, between 1.5 and 3mm per year in Australia’s south and east and between 7 and 10mm in the north;
  • from 1870 to 2007, the global average sea level rose by close to 200mm;
  • since 1960 the mean temperature in Australia has increased by about 0.7 °C. Some areas have experienced a warming of 1.5 to 2 ºC over the last 50 years. Warming has occurred in all seasons, however the strongest warming has occurred in spring (about 0.9 °C);
  • the geographic distribution of rainfall has changed significantly over the past 50 years. Rainfall decreased in south-west and south-east Australia, including all the major population centres, during the same period;
  • global CO2 concentrations have risen rapidly over the last century. Methane, which is another greenhouse gas, has shown similar increases. The carbon dioxide concentration in 2009 of 386 parts per million (ppm) is much higher than the natural range of 170 to 300 ppm that has existed in the atmosphere for at least the past 800,000 years and possibly the past 20 million years.

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (parts per million) and Methane (parts per billion)

What does this all mean? We’re going to be toast, literally. In the next few decades, Australia will be a much hotter place. The CSIRO report says:

Australian average temperatures are projected to rise by 0.6 to 1.5 ºC by 2030. If global greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow at rates consistent with past trends, warming is projected to be in the range of 2.2 to 5.0 ºC by 2070“.

Great. Guess I’ll be able to toast some marshmallows on my searingly hot balcony. And of course there will be a decrease in rainfall, which of course will lead to what I most fear – water scarcity and skirmishes over water. The report includes a blunt statement: “Our observations clearly demonstrate that climate change is real”.

Yeah, well I’m not arguing with pointy-headed scientific dudes who have more knowledge than me about global temperature changes and the causes. The science is strong. Australians should stop putting the the proverbial head in sand, hoping this nasty climate stuff will disappear. It won’t. Think about future generations of children instead of worrying about your McMansion or whether you can afford The Brands.

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Entry filed under: Australia, Climate Change, global warming, Useful resources. Tags: , , .

Sugar, sugar Freaky

6 Comments Add your own

  • 1. rogerthesurf  |  March 23, 2010 at 7:43 am

    The science may be strong but the hypothesis is weak.

    A bit like a building with poor foundations.

    Check out my blog and leave a message.

    Cheers

    Roger

    http://www.rogerfromnewzealand.wordpress.com

    Reply
  • 2. creativespark  |  March 23, 2010 at 8:57 am

    I’ve just added “with a well” to my shopping list for that property I’m going to get so I can grow my own veggies.

    And a wrap-around verandah… with ceiling fans.

    OK, shouldn’t be making light of this. It’s scary.

    All we’ve got to do is look around to see all the horrible things we’re doing to the world. How could anyone NOT think that all those cars and factories pumping crap into the air, all the clear-felling of forests, all the raping of our natural resources, all the everything we do to the poor planet is doing major damage to the ecological balance. How embedded would their heads have to be in the sand?

    =) M

    Reply
  • 3. thinkingshift  |  March 23, 2010 at 10:53 pm

    Hi Roger I’m presuming you might be referring to the Medieval Warming period when you talk about hypothesis. I must do a post on this but in meantime, will check out your blog to see what your thoughts are. Thx for commenting.
    Kim

    Reply
  • 4. Brad  |  March 24, 2010 at 3:18 am

    Hi KIm. Thanks for another great post. I think we need to start talking more about the “greenhouse effect” rather than climate change. The sceptics like to identify climate change as a naturally occuring phenomenon. The “greenhouse effect” is all man-made. What we have is a”greenhouse effect” that will indeed make planet Earth a much more inhospitable place.
    regards,
    Brad

    Reply
  • 5. thinkingshift  |  March 24, 2010 at 3:32 am

    Hi Brad how you going? hope all is well. Yes, good point actually and thx for the prompt. Another post coming up!
    cheers
    Kim

    Reply
  • 6. Andrew Hill  |  March 24, 2010 at 11:35 am

    “On the beach” in reverse.

    Reply

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